What Each US-Iran Outcome Would Mean for Iraq's Holdout Militias

The US-Iran war: paused, unresolvedTrump rejected Iran's proposal on 26 Sep; another US carrier is due in late November
  1. If fighting resumes
    Restraint is tested
    • Washington has warned it would strike factions that join Iran, and their leaders
    • Kataib Hezbollah and Nujaba are the likeliest to act
    • Strikes and reprisals could reach US interests and the Kurdistan Region
    Weapons under state control by June 2027: Unlikely
  2. If a limited deal holds
    Arsenals kept in reserve
    • Faction operations stay suspended
    • Weapons sit in supervised depots, still in the factions' hands
    • Baghdad shows Washington progress and avoids dollar penalties
    Weapons under state control by June 2027: On paper
  3. If a broad settlement is reached
    Integration becomes possible
    • Iran's own calculations change, freeing the factions to deal
    • Sayyid al-Shuhada, centralised and politically exposed, would likely move first
    • Nujaba, small and without territory, could be dismantled if it refused
    Weapons under state control by June 2027: Possible
In every scenario: Kataib Hezbollah's hold on Jurf al‑Sakhar and its revenue networks remains for Baghdad to resolve

Source: TNC analysis; Shafaq News; NIRIJ; ISW, Nov 2026.

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